Luxury Homes - Tucson

Appraisal fears causing some sellers to take LOWER offers

An odd phenomenon is taking place in Tucsons new hot real estate market, as homes are selling for more $$$ and faster some sellers are having to deal with a very real new concern, and that is " Will there home appraise for "contract price or in other words "purchase price". Between 2003 and 2007 the government hands we out of the business of protecting consumers from themselves and guidelines that insured homes were properly assessed (appraised) were are lax as could be. Free enterprise reveled and capitalism at it's finest reined supreme. If you had a home for sale in 2005 on a street where ten identical homes just sold for $400,000 and you decided to ask for $500,000 and someone wanted to pay that price, which happened all too often, the bank " appraiser" would come along and wallah you're home would then be appraised at $500,000 and magically overnight your house was worth $100,000 more than everyone elses, nice. It was the great American ponzi scheme. Today after bailouts and finger pointing new regulations have been put in place to protect buyers and even the banks. As a example of one of the new regulation, It is now a requirement that the Banks (employees) "not communicate with the appraisers" and there are to be no gourmet lunches with appraisers and no ' day spa gift certificates to appraisers. The government also included stricter guidelines for appraisals; essentially, the "home appraisal" method used to determine fair market value had to make sense, meaning appraisers had to legitimately justify there appraisals by a, standard set of guidelines including, by finding homes that were comparable in size and age and in a similar close by neighborhoods; Then after meeting these guidelines and many more, the appraisal are able to make relatively minor plus or minus adjustments for a number of items including finish upgrades . The problem is now, although the appraisal system is vastly improved , sellers and real estate agents are seeing many appraisers working in areas they are not familiar with because they bid the job thru an appraisal management company" and surprise , an appraiser who typically works on the South side appraising $100,000 homes is in the Tucson Foothills appraising a 1. 5 million dollar home. The question is as a Luxury real estate agent, do I want a appraiser not familiar with the luxury real estate market appraising a home for my 1.5 million dollar client looking to acquire a conventional loan? the answer is "No" for a number of reasons. So what many agents in the real estate market are seeing is a small percentage of sellers with uniquely special homes that are of a special character or qualities, considering and even accepting lower offers that are 'cash offers' because in most cases the appraisals are waived and with the waiving of the appraisal so goes the concern that the appraiser could value the property substantially less than what the buyer had offered and agreed to pay... because if the appraisal comes in less than the ' offer' than the buyer can , as we say in the business "walk" or cancel the contract because the buyers bank funding is also tied to the appraisal coming in at purchase price. Now unless the home is nicely under-priced a fear of how the appraisal will come in is now part of almost every transaction.To give you an idea how different the appraisals are now compared to 2006 , I asked one of Tucson most respected appraisers how many of the appraisals in in 2005 or 2006 would come close to meeting new guidelines and she said "zero". For every good there is a grain of salt to give extra nuances. Please feel free to call me with any of your questions on Tucson and Tucson Luxury homes in the Foothills, Oro valley or Dove mountain.. or even my favorite community in the East, ' Wild Horse Ranch'. Michael Chaisson Long Realty 520-225-8414

GREAT buy in PIma Canyon,, Please buy me

This will be short, Pima Canyon has been giving some homes away lately and now a very nice home that has seen one price drop after another is down to $745,000 ,, Now this is "buy" number , nice floor plan , reasonable finishes and in Pima Canyon Estates. What's not to love? except for mimimal views and minimal landscaping.. but look at the bright side, it is the least expensive home in one of Tucson VERY best communities... and it's low care. To see all the details and photos please click here , www.luxuryhomes-tucson.com/2116218 .

Warren Buffet and Tucson Real Estate

 

 

 

The article below was sent to me courtesy of lender , Diane Clark from Prime Lending. It was coincidental that Diane sent these notes to me because I was talking to a client of mine whose son was looking for investment opportunities and I suggested,  "with the low rates and nice return provided by rental properties, buying single family homes in Tucson and renting them was offering very nice returns to investors and providing excellent equity building potential" , quite a different story from a year ago , when we were still seeing sale prices on Tucson homes slip. Today, the entire spectrum of real estate market in Tucson is on the mend although some areas of Tucson are still showings 'leveling' the Tucson Foothills continues to improve and show slight price increases across all price categories. 

 

>> Market Update 

QUOTE OF THE WEEK..."If I had a way of buying a couple hundred thousand single-family homes... I would load up on them." --Warren Buffett

INFO THAT HITS US WHERE WE LIVE... Buffett, one of the world's most successful investors, appeared live on CNBC last Monday and told viewers: "... if I knew where I was going to want to live the next five or 10 years, I would buy a home and finance it with a 30-year mortgage, and it's a terrific deal." He added, "... if I was an investor that was a handy type... I could buy a couple of them... and find renters... and again take a 30-year mortgage.... I think that's probably as an attractive an investment as you can make now." Check out the video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vkx57Ifein8&feature=share

Later that morning, as if on cue, January Pending Home Sales came in UP 2% from December and UP 8% over a year ago.This measure of homes under contract from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) hit its highest level since April 2010. The NAR's chief economist commented, "the trend in contract activity implies we are on track for a more meaningful sales gain this year." 
 
 BUSINESS TIP OF THE WEEK...  Apple means innovation. Disney says magic. What's the one special thing you stand for? Decide on that, then make it the focus of all your marketing efforts.

>> Review of Last Week

GOOD NEWS, BAD NEWS... Bad news: the Dow suffered its third weekly loss since the start of the year. Good news: during the week, the Dow closed above 13,000 for the first time since 2008; the Nasdaq sailed over 3,000 (but didn't stay there) for the first time since 2000; and the S&P 500 had its best two-month annual start since 1987. Good news, bad news also describes the economic data we continue to get. The bad news began with Durable Goods sliding 4% in January. This was followed by the good news that Consumer Confidence spiked to 70.8 in February.

More good news came with manufacturing doing well in the Chicago region, followed by the bad news that manufacturing overall is growing, but slower than expected. It was good news that the Q4 GDP 2nd Estimate rose to 3%, February auto sales reached their highest level since before the recession and same-store sales shot up 6.4% at 18 retail chains. But bad news that Personal Spending, up 0.2%, and Personal Income, up 0.3%, were both weaker than expected.

For the week, the Dow ended down 0.04%, at 12978; the S&P 500 closed UP 0.3%, to 1370; and the Nasdaq went UP 0.4%, to 2976.

Better economic data hurt bond prices in the first half of the week, but European worries ultimately drove investors back to the safe haven of bonds. The FNMA 3.5% bond we watch ended the week up .01, to $103.14. In Freddie Mac's weekly survey, national average fixed mortgage rates eased this week, staying at or near record lows for the coming spring home buying season. 

DID YOU KNOW?... In 2012, the NAR expects a 1.1% rise in the median price for existing homes, a 2.1% median price rise for new homes and a 3.3% rise in rents. 

>> This Week’s Forecast

ALL EYES ON FRIDAY...  That's when we get the February Employment Report which will tell us if the jobs situation, vital to the housing recovery, will continue its upward crawl. The consensus among economists is that there will be fewer new jobs for the month, although the Unemployment Rate should remain the same.

Those with jobs are accomplishing more, as Q4 Productivity is expected to be up again. The ISM Services index is predicted to show growth, but the Trade Balance should still have imports exceeding exports by over $48 billion.

>> The Week’s Economic Indicator Calendar

Weaker than expected economic data tends to send bond prices up and interest rates down, while positive data points to lower bond prices and rising loan rates.

Economic Calendar for the Week of Mar 5 – Mar 9

Date	Time (ET)	Release	For	Consensus	Prior	Impact
M Mar 5	10:00	ISM Services	Feb	56.0	56.8	Moderate
W Mar 7	08:30	Productivity - Rev.	Q4	0.9%	0.7%	Moderate
W Mar 7	10:30	Crude Inventories	3/3	NA	4.160M	Moderate
Th Mar 8	08:30	Initial Unemployment Claims	3/3	355K	351K	Moderate
Th Mar 8	08:30	Continuing Unemployment Claims	2/25	3.405M	3.402M	Moderate
F Mar 9	08:30	Average Workweek	Feb	34.5	34.5	HIGH
F Mar 9	08:30	Hourly Earnings	Feb	0.2%	0.2%	HIGH
F Mar 9	08:30	Nonfarm Payrolls	Feb	207K	243K	HIGH
F Mar 9	08:30	Unemployment Rate	Feb	8.3%	8.3%	HIGH
F Mar 9	08:30	Trade Balance	Jan	-$48.1B	-$48.8B	Moderate

 

>> Federal Reserve Watch   

Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months... Everyone still expects the Fed to keep the Funds Rate down for now, since they said they'll try to keep it there til the end of 2014. Note: In the lower chart, a 1% probability of change is a 99% certainty the rate will stay the same.

Current Fed Funds Rate: 0%–0.25%

After FOMC meeting on:	Consensus
Mar 13	0%–0.25%
Apr 25	0%–0.25%
Jun 20	0%–0.25%

Probability of change from current policy:

After FOMC meeting on:	Consensus
Mar 13	<1%
Apr 25	<1%
Jun 20	<1%

Credit goes to Diane Clark of the National PrimeLending Relocation Team for the above article.

Where are the GREAT luxury homes in Tucson???

It's incredible , the Tucson real estate market is booming again,... I am getting multiple offers on my listings and I have a select group of wonderful buyers... all looking  for what,  I encourage my clients to aspire to ,, which is "The very best luxury homes" ...but the Tucson Luxury home dilema is ... THERE ARE SOOOOOOOOOOO FEW truly fine upper market properties worthy of purchase in the The Tucson oothills, Oro Valley or Dove mountain,  it is getting bewildering..so if you're looking and feeling the same way you are not alone ... good advice = don't pull your hair out..  The real estate situation reminds me of the shop keeper in the movies, who only has a few loaves of stale bread in the store, with a long line of people vying for what's in stock ... that picture summarizes the challenging real estate situation in Tucson for upper end home buyers. For example,  I have a new client looking for a home in the $700,000 to $900,000 range , you would think that is a reasonable amount to set aside to purchase a very nice home ... so I searched the entire list of available "luxury" homes again in that price range hoping against hope that somehow some gem home would now magically appear and I could find this gentleman and his wife a few worthy homes to view; As I scanned each of the homes, almost all of the homes I had seen at least once in person and a thousand times on the net, but at the end of the search once again there was just the same and newly listed dreary,  over -priced homes on so-so lots. So what is the meaningful importance of this blog to a reader interested in buying in the Tucson Foothills or any other luxury community in Tucson.. . be selective , if your Realtor is a good one 'the most valuable words he/she may have for you is .. patience is a virtue and patience is a tool to all good things .  Those heeding these words might have picked up some of the Tucson foothills most recent BEST buys in the foothills including the home featured below selling in just 12 days 6060 E.Calle Vida(pictured below). 

 Call for more details on Tucson finer Luxury communities and homes to Michael Chaisson , Realtor 520-225-8414. I will be happy to send the best new listings on the market as they come out with a comprehensive review

 

22 over $700,000 in Contract in the Tucson Foothills

Tucson busiest season continues to impress and ironically to a certain degree disappoint. There are an impressive 22 homes priced at $700,000 and above currently under contract in the Tucson foothills including zip codes  85718 & 85750 .  Focusing first on the positive. All the sellers on these transactions must be pleased,  especially the sellers of 5320 N. Camino Real... the home has been on the market, a patience testing 420 days,  beginning it's sales journey in January 2010 at an oddly high $995,000. It was recently reduced to $747,000 and surprise, this charming foothills home is now in contract (see below and at www.luxuryhomes-tucson.com/21200494

The next happiest seller is likely the owner of 7303 N. Mystic Canyon in Pima Canyon estates; on this sale both buyer and seller will be uncorking the champagne. The home has been on the market 716 days just 14 days shy of TWO years , Can you imagine having potential buyers go in and out of your home for almost two years ??? painful... however good news for the buyers, who will be purchasing the home below the latest asking price of $799,900 in a community known for it's million dollar plus sales. Other happy sellers include the sellers of 6060 E. Calle de Vita whose had to wait a whole, nail biting 13 days before their very contemporary house received an offer.   (SEE living room photo below)  

(see more of "Vita" , pictured above at www.luxuryhomes-tucson/21202652 

Also one of the newest homes in Contract is 6820 N. Los Leones .. with an asking of 1.6 million, it was on the market just 12 days before an offer was accepted.  See image of Kitchen below and all images at   www.luxuryhomes-tucson.com/21201010

As pointed out in the this Foothills market update,  many of the newer, nicer homes in the foothills are selling in under two weeks (pent up demand) which brings me to my other point, that there is some disappointment in the current market ,, which  oddly enough is a lack of supply of nicely finished , attractive homes on nice lots in the Foothills. Ironically The Tucson Foothills 85718 which is the most highly sought after community in Tucsonhas a shockingly low supply of nice homes.   I had a conversation with a home buyer the other day who said, " he had two different agents who tried to encourage him to buy two lackluster homes ", homes he said would not even consider ,, yet the agents were 'pushing them as a "good buy"  ' .. so he wisely discontinued contact with both these Tucson Realtors. As a note to Tucson home buyers, I encourage patience,, Gem homes do come up but please make sure you #1.  work with an experienced agent that understands and can point out the difference between a structure in the foothills or other luxury community in Tucson and a " gem home" within that community....  AND    2. is completely dedicated to your BEST interest; then give them the trust and yourself the time to find the perfect home ,, one that will appreciate as our market continues to improve and demand increases in the Foothills community I refer to as, "The Beverly Hills of Tucson"

I work with a select group of Luxury homes buyers, if you have discriminating taste and are looking for a Realtor who has a standard of excellence in finding the very best Tucson Homes please call me to discuss the current market and best homes available in The Foothills, Oro Valley and Dove Mountain. I have an unsurpassed record of client satisfaction.

Michael Chaisson , Luxury Homes Specialist 520.225.8414

Tucson Foothills market update Feb 2012

 

If it's not the great weather than it's home sales,, it's looking like blue skies in the Tucson Foothills real estate market with a brisk 30 closed sales in the Tucson Foothills 85718 and 85750 since the beginning of the year (of homes selling between $300,000 and $10,000,000)  with an INCREASE in per square foot sale price since the same period in 2011, YES an increase.  The average psf sale price during the first two months of 2011 was $176.99, this year the average per square foot sale price is $184.49 or a 4.23% increase in psf sales numbers over last year.. soooo is it, "the bottom" ? or is it already trendy back up in the Foothills .  Here are some other data facts; there are currently, 9 Tucson Foothills properties active capa(under contract, but accepting 'back up' offers ) and whooping 78 homes under contract set to close in the next 30 to 45 days . What I am seeing as Foothills Realtor is,.  nice well priced homes selling within 3 to 30 days with multiple offers on the very best home options. The foothills has the strongest real estate numbers in Tucson and consistently does better than the rest of the Tucson's real estate market , typically declining less in down times and rising faster in market up swings. One of the principle reasons for this is The foothills offers the premier location for living while still providing the natural beauty most buyers seek when coming to the Southwest, in two words 'market demand' ,  limited supply in a high demand area....  add to this equation my pet peve, that somehow, road money and money for community improvement projects in Tucson never quite make it here.. even though this little town has now grown to a population of over a million sun & fun lovers, soooo if your going to rough it on our dusty bumpy roads you might as well be up somewhere with beautiful views. Below are just a few of the nicer homes closing sale since the beginning of the year.

Sentry Ridge Court closing for just over 1.5 million

And Desert Sun Court Closing (below) for $610,000

 

Please call to get more details on the Tucson Foothills Real estate and Tucson overall Luxury homes market including Oro Valley and Dove Mountain. Michael Chaisson Long Realty, Foothills Luxury Homes Specialist 520-225-8414

Some surprising Tucson Foothills Sales to start 2012.

As usual, I review the most recent sales and market data in the Tucson luxury real estate market, particularly in the Foothills 85718 and Oro Valley.  Check one,  no recent surprise sales in the Oro Valley luxury market , but plenty of surprises in the Tucson foothills , there were two sales so high since the beginning of the year that they qualified as definite  'head scratching high closing numbers" ... and there is a nearly 2 million dollar pending sale that will close much higher than market comparables. A recent example, is a home that  just closed on 1/5/2012 in Pinnacle Ridge Estates for $765,000 when the last two most recent closings in the same community of similar size, age and equal view homes were respectively $605,000 and another more highly finished home with better views and larger sold for  $700,000.. uummm, I can only attribute the the "high buys" to emotional purchases... or lack of market knowledge, facilitated by a less than focused appraisal, which allows for bank funding of these transactions.  The particularly high closing (for Pinnacle Ridge) of $765,000 and others like it,  remind me a little of the loose appraisals & 'high' buys seen in 2005... let's hope this is not going to be a trend again. 

There are however two sides to the equation, One is, the appraiser and Realtor should be there as voice of fact and reason" but at the same time making sure '' an agreement/ the voice of a buyer and seller is the final word' ; which reminds me of a meeting I had the other day relevant to this discussion; I was talking with a very nice seller..  I saw that he had paid over a million dollars for his home just under three years ago,,, and looking at the market data , it was pretty clear, even at that time of his purchase, the home was worth closer to a market value of $850,000 to $895,000 (now worth in 700's) so as gently as I could,  because again the seller was as nice and intelligent as could be, I asked ,," did you know you were paying a premium at the time of purchase" and he said,

  "Yes, but I just loved the home" ...

I absolutely respected his answer , he knew he was paying beyond top dollar but was still interested in going all in ,,, " great" life is short,  so if you cannot wait for the price to drop and your agent can not negotiate the price down to market value or is not familiar enough with the market to inform you .. than by all means,  live where it makes you feel good. I just hope and try to remind buyers ,  " if you pay a premium at purchase, when you go to sell a few years latter" chances are, the "love it buy" is going to cost you at least $50,000.00 for home costing under a million ....and the " love it buy" for homes over a million could cost you between $150,000 and $400,000 or more, this is occurring even in today's foothills real estate market with the toughest appraisal guidelines ever. The best tool, when buying a Tucson luxury home is knowledge and usually plenty of patience.

Please call me if you would like to chat about the luxury home market in Tucson and how you can make sure you make the best luxury home purchase possible.

Michael Chaisson

Long Realty, Foothills and Oro Valley Luxury homes

*Listed as one of the Top Realtors in the U.S*

 

Please note :when I reference paying  beyond "market value" that does not mean homes with superior finishes and views should not be purchased at a premium but given equally finishes homes, views, lots , community etc..there is 'market value' experienced Realtors in a given area are aware and should inform buyers.

Remember this ??? in the Foothills 85718

If you have been looking at the real estate market in the Tucson Foothills and wandered into the $400,000 price range by accident, you may have seen this Tucson Foothills classic (featured below). It was on the market in the foothills a whooping 600 days, starting with an asking price of $475,000. Gotta love these classics, the kitchen brings back fond memories of my great grandmother making me and all my friends delicious peanut butter and jelly sandwiches.

This 3929 square foot home with huge guest house finally sold two months ago for $300,000. I showed this home to one of my nicest clients looking for a Foothills investment property and he thought ... "ummmm I don't see the potential ". Well... here's what grandmother kitchen looks like today, two months after being purchased for $300,000.

 

and the pool area looked like before .. see below

and now looks like .. See below

This is an investor flip . Now priced at just over $500,000.   I would imagine the talented buyer purchasing this property at $300,000 is quite happy others missed seeing what was hidden under a little dust and more than satisfied with an expected profit of over $100,000, not bad for two months work.

If your a buyer looking in the Tucson Foothills and you do not have the $800,000 to $1.500,000, it typically cost to find a nice home in the Foothills , the "Beverly Hills" of Tucson, you may consider a little fix up.. always plenty of possibilities . The foothills is full of "charming older homes" waiting for a buyer with a little imagination.  

 

Please feel free call me for more details on Tucson Luxury Homes, in Oro Valley, the Foothills 85718 and Dove Mountain Michael Chaisson Luxury Home Specialist Tucson 520-225-8414

Market Reports, From Tucson....or Newww York City

Recently news was released from the National Association of Realtors of an reporting error, although they  "typically ' have amazing tools to analyze , summarize and extrapolate all matters of data on the real estate market, the information as noted in a recent news release is not "full proof',,, and most of that data is typically released on a semi regular basis.  The recent NAR report below indicated that in 2007, the NAR had not factored in certain variables that skewed their market activity asessment. In fact the NAR error caused an over statement of sales by 14% .  A significant number and when the report was first published many buyers and sellers accepted the report as accurate,  because it was written it was gospel. This unfortunately happens quite frequently in the Tucson real estate market; Every time something is written by some journalist in New York city  or even in Arizona, using some "configured data" or information even from the NAR, I get phone calls , usually slightly panicky because the news written usually has some "scary spin" which is an old a tool as news itself... So Here is what I recommend to anyone interested in receiving real time facts , data, boots on the ground information on," how the Tucson real estate market is doing" .. call a respected Realtor in the market you're interested in ,, one that works like me 7 days a week is usually a good idea, because I/they will be the very best source for how the market is doing at the very minute you call and can tell you facts about home buying and selling over the last 30 days or 30 minutes... and I will also be able to tell you and send you, what data will be showing up on the more accurate sites in 3 months from now.

My Market focus includes Luxury homes , Foothills 85718, 85750, 85658,85748,85737 and 85711 historic, contemporary, mid century modern, southwest, charming and architecturally significant properties.

Below is the NAR report as reported from Inman news,

NAR overestimated real estate sales by 14%

November existing-home sales up 12% from year ago

By Matt Carter, Wednesday, December 21, 2011.

Inman News®

Balloon houses imagevia Shutterstock.com.

The National Association of Realtors says it overestimated home sales by more than 14 percent since 2007 because an adjustment that the trade group makes to data it collects from multiple listing services to account for sales that take place outside of MLSs got out of whack over time.

NAR says it's fixed the problem and "rebenchmarked" statistics going back to 2007, when it said its adjustments began to diverge from previous assumptions about how many sales take place outside of MLSs.

 

FOR THE FULL REPORT , Please call me .

 

8 hours and gone..another record breaker in Catalina Foothills 10

The photographer had not even arrived to take the pictures for the internet yet.. it was just two days before Christmas and my clients were just the second couple in to see a beautiful Catalina Foothills #10 house which was technically not even on the market yet , so it was a bit of a surprise, when I was told,  "one offer was already expected in and was coming in "strong",  in other words 'low ballers , bargain hunters and those using Zillow as a appraisal tool need not apply . I was having 2005 deja vu flashbacks. My clients fortunately decided not to enter the bidding fray, seeing value just not quite the same value as the other couple. None the less, a beautiful and terrifically appointed home with one of the most luxurious guest houses I have seen in ages will be going to a no doubt terrific couple with clearly EXCELLENT taste and a good understanding of the Tucson market. By acting quickly, they will be enjoying one of the nicest homes in the Tucson Foothills in what is shaping up to be a " red hot community "as of late . Yes, Catalina Foothills #10 85718 is moving homes fast and with some very impressive numbers. Just over thirty days ago,  3565 E. Placita De La Raza sold in ten days for $1,120,000.00 not a huge number but for a home built in 1995 and looking every bit of 1994 with the exception of new kitchen cabinets, selling for over 1.1 in ten days is strong. Catalina Foothills #10 also had a strong number with the sale of 4655 N.Placita Roca Blanca, selling earlier this the year at $1,465,000 or at $317.00 per square foot , Seen pictured below,

And below 3252 E. Camino Boscaje Escondido Tucson 85718 selling for 1,750.000 or 314.52 psf.

You can expect the per square foot sale price of the home newly in contract will be higher than both these sales.. but if you want to "live the dream" and realize you can't take it with you,... than to live in a 'dream home' today, that you can generously share with friends, family and your significant other .. than the price will be worth every penny. 

Out of respect for the sellers and buyers, pictures of the new sale will go up when the sellers decide to put the home on the MLS/internet. No photos or address given until it's placed on public site.

One more note,  those getting a few of those smaller less expensive homes in this neighborhood may also want to uncork the champagne; the old adage of "the best investment can be the smallest home in the nicest neighborhood" may be a winner for recent bargain hunters in Tucson Foothills Catalina #10 neighborhood. To find out more about what makes this neighborhood so special, please feel free to e-mail me at mcazrealtor@yahoo.com or view my sites at www.foothillsfinesthomes.com or www.luxuryhomes-tucson.com

 

Best wishes ,

M.C